Choppers!

Here are some photos of Heather Smith (our photographer) and I in a helicopter. We went to the VA disaster simulation this morning at Centennial Airport. Look for the story in tomorrow's paper!

Sheilah Davis running for mayor

Aurora resident Sheilah Davis, a psychotherapist specializing in hypnotherapy, has filed paperwork for the Aurora mayoral race.
The city clerk and recorder's office released the information Monday.
She is the fourth candidate to jump in the mayoral race.
An Aurora resident of 10 years, Davis said she received her Master's degree in psychology from Regis University in 2005.
Davis said she is running for mayor because she "wanted to bring everyday citizens into the conversation".
"A lot of times I get to talking to people and they tell me they feel forgotten," Davis said. "They see changes they don't like."
Davis is also an active member of Citizens for Responsible Aurora Government — a group of disgruntled taxpayers perhaps most well-known for posting the results of an open records request detailing government workers' salaries on their website.
As a member of CRAG, Davis said she's noticed that the city has "some issues with transparency".
Davis, who lives in south Aurora, hopes to officially announce her candidacy at a fundraiser event for charity but still has yet to announce a date.
Davis, who is a native of Colorado, said she moved to Aurora in 2001 after she was involved in a car accident in the city. She said so many people came to help her at the scene of the crash that she figured Aurora must be the best place to live.

What are Ryan's plans?

Parishioners of a local church said on April 10 that Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier is running for mayor. Frazier said they erred in their statement. "I informed them afterwards that I had not made any announcements about my plans," he said in an email.
Whether the former candidate for Congress will enter the Aurora mayoral race has been the subject of many conversations over the past few months.
Frazier said last week he will make a decision about whether to enter the race in 30 days.

Spring Showcase conference info

The Community Associations Institute is hosting its annual Spring Showcase
conference on Friday, April 29 from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. at Wings Over the
Rockies Air & Space Museum.

The conference offers educational programs to HOA managers, volunteer board
members and homeowners.

For more information, call 303-951-4973 or register online at
www.hoa-colorado.org.


Note: If you are having problems with your HOA or if HOA board members are having problems with residents, this might be a good place to learn about how you can resolve these issues.

Effects of a government shutdown

Google images/White House

You've probably heard lots of talk concerning a possible government shutdown if Congress can't agree on  a budget plan by Friday. You might be wondering what the possible effects of a government shut down would be and how many federal employees would be laid off or furloughed. Here are some facts that I've gathered from different sources of information. 


From the Denver Post:
If no agreement is reached on providing new funding for the rest of the fiscal year, through Sept. 30, many federal activities are expected to begin shutting down Saturday, such as museums, monuments and national parks.
http://www.denverpost.com/nationworld/ci_17780241


From CNN:

Lawmakers have been trying to reach a compromise that would set spending levels for the next six months. But with the deadline fast approaching, there appears to be precious little movement toward a deal.

The officials stressed that a shutdown would put a drag on the economy, as loans dried up and hundreds of thousands of government workers are put on furlough.

And for the first time, officials hinted at just how many workers would be asked to stay home. The official estimate: 800,000. That means almost a million Americans won't get a paycheck.

http://www.opm.gov/furlough2011/

From USA.gov:


The President has made it clear that he does not want a government shutdown, and the Administration is willing and ready to work day and night to find a solution that all sides can agree with. That said, given the realities of the calendar, prudent management requires we plan for an orderly shutdown should the negotiations not be completed by the end of the current continuing resolution.

Visit the U.S. Office of Personnel Management for answers to some common questions about the potential impact of a government shutdown on federal employees.
Q: What is a shutdown furlough and why is a shutdown furlough necessary?A: In the event that funds are not available through an appropriations law or continuing resolution, a "shutdown" furlough occurs. A shutdown furlough is necessary when an agency no longer has the necessary funds to operate and must shut down those activities which are not excepted pursuant to the Antideficiency Act.


Q: May an employee volunteer to do his or her job on a non-pay basis during a shutdown furlough?
A: No. Unless otherwise authorized by law, an agency may not accept the voluntary services of an employee. (See 31 U.S.C. 1342.)

Q: Will excepted employees be paid for performing work during a shutdown furlough?  If so, when will excepted employees receive such payments?
A: Agencies will incur obligations to pay for services performed by excepted employees during a lapse in appropriations, and those employees will be paid when Congress passes and the President signs a new appropriation or continuing resolution. 

Q: Will an employee continue to be covered under the Federal Employee Health Benefits (FEHB) program during a shutdown furlough if the agency is unable to make its premium payments on time? 
A. Yes, the employee’s FEHB coverage will continue even if an agency does not make the premium payments on time.


Information from Congressman Ed Perlmutter's office:

CRS Told one of our staffers:  “In advance of a shutdown, it’s not possible to predict what will and what will not shutdown, and which employees will or will not be furloughed.”

When federal agencies and programs lack appropriated funding, they experience a funding gap. Under the Antideficiency Act, Federal Agencies must cease operations, except in emergency situations.  The emergencies involve the “safety of human life or the protection of property.” According to Clinton, there is substantial discretion in how to interpret such situations.  The 1996s shutdowns were governed by a 1981 memorandum released by OMB.  The Obama White House has not released any new guidance.

OMB requires each government agency to complete shutdown plans.  The agencies have “draft” plans that have not been made public.

CRS: Effects of Government Shutdown on the Public

The effects of the two FY1996 shutdowns on government activities and the public received extensive attention. Although the effects on the public of any future shutdown would not necessarily reflect past experience, past events may be illustrative of effects that are possible.³⁴ Several examples follow that were reported in congressional hearings, news media, and agency accounts.³⁵

·         Health. New patients were not accepted into clinical research at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) clinical center; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ceased disease surveillance; and hotline calls to NIH concerning diseases were not answered.³⁶

·         Law Enforcement and Public Safety. Delays occurred in the processing of alcohol, tobacco, firearms, and explosives applications by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms; work on more than 3,500 bankruptcy cases reportedly was suspended; cancellation of the recruitment and testing of federal law-enforcement officials reportedly occurred, including the hiring of 400 border patrol agents; and delinquent child-support cases were delayed.³⁷

·         Parks, Museums, and Monuments. Closure of 368 National Park Service sites (loss of 7 million visitors) reportedly occurred, with loss of tourism revenues to local communities; and closure of national museums and monuments (reportedly with an estimated loss of 2 million visitors) occurred.³⁸

·         Visas and Passports. Approximately 20,000-30,000 applications by foreigners for visas reportedly went unprocessed each day; 200,000 U.S. applications for passports reportedly went unprocessed; and U.S. tourist industries and airlines reportedly sustained millions of dollars in losses.³⁹

·         American Veterans. Multiple services were curtailed, ranging from health and welfare to finance and travel.⁴⁰

·         Federal Contractors. Of $18 billion in Washington, DC, area contracts, $3.7 billion (over 20%) reportedly were affected adversely by the funding lapse; the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was unable to issue a new standard for lights and lamps that was scheduled to be effective January 1, 1996, possibly resulting in delayed product delivery and lost sales; and employees of federal contractors reportedly were furloughed without pay.⁴¹

For the federal courts, a prolonged lapse in appropriated funding in the future, it has been suggested, might have a noticeable effect on court operations and on members of the public in contact with the courts. A spokeswoman for the judiciary reportedly has said it would again consider using non-appropriated funds to continue operating, as it did during the 1995-1996 government shutdowns. However, serious disruption, she added, could occur if a shutdown were prolonged and funds were depleted—with district and appellate courts unable to keep jurors, court reporters, clerks, probation officers, or security personnel on the job. Each court, she said, would make an independent decision on which employees were "emergency" and which were not.⁴²

From Appropriations Dems:

“The Worst Possible Outcome”

Washington- Norm Dicks gave the following statement today as we work towards a deal on a FY2011 Budget: “As talks continue I sincerely hope that a bill emerges that’s fiscally responsible, fair to the American public and that all sides can agree too. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: a government shutdown is the worst possible outcome. It would disproportionally burden our soldiers in uniform and those who are vulnerable and dependent on government services. It would also have a serious impact on our economy just as we’re seeing positive signs that we’re emerging out of this recession.”

Below are just some of the impacts we could expect from a government shutdown:

SHUTDOWN COULD DELAY BENEFITS FOR SENIORS, VETERANS & MILITARY FAMILIES

Shutdown Would Impose Financial Hardships on Military and Civilian Personnel. With military families already facing military deployments and other hardships, a government shutdown could make the situation even worse. While most service members and military personnel would remain on duty through a shutdown, their paychecks could be delayed. [Stars and Stripes, 3/13/11]

More Than 400,000 Veterans Saw Their Disability, Pension or Educational Benefits Delayed. During the 1995-96 shutdowns, more than 400,000 veterans saw their disability benefits and pension claims delayed, while educational benefits were delayed for 170,000 veterans. [Army Times, 2/3/11; CNN,1/4/96]

More Than 100,000 New Social Security Claims Were Delayed. In just four days during the 1995 shutdown, 112,000 claims for Social Security retirement and disability benefits were not taken and 800,000 callers were denied service on SSA’s 800 number. [SSA History]

Clinical Trials and Disease Surveillance Were Halted. During the 1995-96 shutdowns, “New patients were not accepted into clinical research at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) clinical center; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ceased disease surveillance; hotline calls to NIH concerning diseases were not answered.” [CRS, 2/18/11]

Services to 1.2 Million People With Disabilities Were Interrupted. During the 1995 and 1996 shutdowns, the Department of Education’s Office of Special Education Programs had no staff. A spokesman said that “services to an estimated 1.2 million people with disabilities were interrupted during theshutdown, and severe cash disruptions occurred in the federal-state rehabilitation system and the vocational rehabilitation system... The disruptions caused a trickle-down effect. Arkansas had to lay off 490 state employees in the state vocational rehabilitation program due to a disruption in federal support, and Texas suspended services for two days to 6,000 blind clients of its vocational rehabilitation program, he said.” [Special Educator, 2/2/96]

SHUTDOWN COULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Shutdown Could Cost the Economy $8 Billion Every Week. According to independent, non-partisan analysis from Goldman Sachs, “If funding lapsed, non-essential services would shut down immediately, representing around $8bn per week in missed federal spending...This would equate to $32bn in annualized terms, or around 0.2% of GDP for each week of shutdown.” [ABC News,2/23/11]

15,000 Homeowners Could Be Prevented From Getting a Home Loan Every Week. Each week that the government is shutdown could prevent 15,000 homeowners from obtaining a FHA-guaranteed mortgage, based on January 2011 data.  In January, the FHA originated 119,521 mortgages – more than half of which were new home purchases rather than refinances. During the 1996-96 shutdowns, the Federal Housing Administration was unable to insure single family home loans for tens of thousands of applicants. According to officials at the time, the FHA normally processed 2,500 mortgage loans a day. [Joint Economic Committee; FHA Single-Family Outlook, January 2011; Clinton Radio Address, 1/22/96; American Banker, 1/8/96]

Shutdown Could Delay 350 Export Licenses Every Week; $2.2 Billion in U.S. Exports Were Held Up During Last Shutdown. During the 1995-96 shutdowns, approximately $2.2 billion in U.S. exports couldn’t leave the country because the Department of State and Bureau of Export Administration were unable to issue more than 1,000 export licenses. In FY 2010, the Commerce Department processed 21,660 export license applications valued at approximately $66.2 billion. Based on that rate, Commerce could delay issuing approximately 350 export licenses to U.S. businesses every week during a shutdown. [Committee on Government Reform and Oversight, 12/6/95; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, FY10 Annual Report]

More Than 1,000 Small Business Loans Could Be Delayed Every Week.  The Dallas Morning News reported that, during the 1995-96 shutdowns, “More than $ 1 million in loans to small businesses were delayed because the Small Business Administration couldn't guarantee loans.” In all, approximately 5,200 small businesses were delayed in receiving SBA guaranteed financing during the last shutdowns. On average in 2011, SBA has approved more than 1,000 7(a) and ARC loans every week, the processing of which could be delayed by a shutdown.  [Dallas Morning News, 1/13/96; Committee on Government Reform and Oversight, 12/6/95; SBA Weekly Lending Report]

Tourists Spend $11.9 Billion a Year Visiting National Parks, Benefiting Local Economies; During Last Shutdown, 368 National Parks Closed. During the 1995-96 shutdowns, “Closure of 368 National Park Service sites (loss of 7 million visitors) reportedly occurred, with loss of tourism revenues to local communities; and closure of national museums and monuments (reportedly with an estimated loss of 2 million visitors) occurred.” National parks support nearly 270,000 private-sector jobs and. In 2009, the 285.6 million visitors to national parks spent $11.89 billion in the local areas around the parks, with a total economic effect of $14.4 billion in sales, $4.8 billion in labor income, and $8.0 billion in value added. [CRS, 2/18/11; National Park Service, January 2011]NOTE: Click HERE (Table A-4) for economic impact of visitors to national parks in each state

During Last Shutdown, 200,000 Passport Applications Went Unprocessed.During the 1995-96 shutdowns, “Approximately 20,000-30,000 applications by foreigners for visas reportedly went unprocessed each day; 200,000 U.S. applications for passports reportedly went unprocessed; and U.S. tourist industries and airlines reportedly sustained millions of dollars in losses.” [CRS,2/18/11]

SHUTDOWN COULD LEAVE AMERICA LESS SECURE

Hiring of New Border Patrol Agents Was Delayed. During the 1995-96 shutdowns, “cancellation of the recruitment and testing of federal law enforcement officials reportedly occurred, including the hiring of 400 border patrol agents; and delinquent child-support cases were delayed.” [CRS,2/18/11]

SHUTDOWN COULD INCREASE OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL

Offshore Oil Rigs Were Idled. “The International Association of Drilling Contractors estimates the 20 day shutdown in December and January idled 24 offshore rigs for periods ranging from 2 to 7 days at a cost of $ 20,000-100,000/day. IADC estimated losses to the offshore industry at $ 7.8 million in the Gulf of Mexico alone during this period.” [Oil & Gas Journal, 2/12/96]

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Impact of a Shutdown on the Dept. of Defense (CRS Report 4-1-11)

From CNBC

US Government Shutdown Means Disrupted Services

The White House and Congress have until Friday to reach agreement on an elusive federal spending-cut bill — or face a partial shutdown of the U.S. government beginning the next day.

Relatively few federal employees work on weekends, so the impact of a shutdown likely won't be felt much until Monday when millions of people on the federal payroll are set to report to their jobs.

With federal agencies under orders to get ready for a shutdown, it is unclear exactly how matters will unfold. But some tax returns could get delayed, calls to federal hotlines may go unanswered and plenty of national parks will likely be closed.

Most of the 4.4 million federal workers, including members of the U.S. military, will go to work, however, since they are considered essential.

It's been 15 years since the last government shutdown over spending disagreements. Here are some facts about what could happen:

— Hundreds of thousands of federal workers could be idled as nonessential, disrupting all but vital U.S. services such as national defense, emergency medical care and air traffic control. In addition, some employees of federal contractors may also be furloughed.

— Unlike the last two shutdowns, both of which occurred in the 1990s, this one would take place during tax preparation and filing season. That could mean delayed tax refunds to an untold number of Americans, congressional aides say.

— The last shutdown closed much of the federal government from Dec. 16, 1995, to Jan. 6, 1996. National parks and museums were closed, an estimated 200,000 applications for U.S passports went unprocessed and work on more than 3,500 bankruptcy cases was suspended.

— Also during the last shutdown, new patients were not accepted into clinical research at the National Institutes of Health, hotline calls to NIH about diseases were not answered, and toxic waste cleanup work at 609 sites stopped.

— A shutdown may be felt on a number of fronts, including delays in approving import and export licenses, Social Security applications and benefits for military veterans, congressional aides say.

— Essential personnel in the last shutdown — employees who remained on the job -- included members of the U.S. military, federal criminal investigators, those involved in federal disaster assistance and workers vital to keeping crucial elements of the U.S. money and banking system up and running.

— Since 1980, all federal agencies have been required to have updated plans for potential shutdowns that include who would be furloughed and who would be kept on the job.

From New York Times:

States Fear Local Effects If Shutdown Cuts Off Cash 

By: Michael Cooper
The New York Times

Already straining to make ends meet as the longest downturn since the Great Depression grinds on, state and local governments are now facing a new, unwelcome question: What would a shutdown of the federal government mean for their struggles to balance their budgets?

If a shutdown were to happen, the federal money that helps states pay the administrative costs of their stretched unemployment programs could dry up, forcing states to advance the money to keep the programs running. Federal grants for a variety of programs — including research, higher education and training local law enforcement officers — could be delayed.

Furloughing nonessential federal workers and halting payments to federal contractors could have a domino effect as local tax collections plummet in the Washington area and other places with many federal workers. And if national parks were closed, some states could lose tourism business, and the local tax revenues they generate.

“It all comes down to timing,” said Scott D. Pattison, the executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers, which has been fielding calls this week from nervous state officials. “If it’s just a few days, you can deal with it. But if it’s over a week or two, the financial management people’s foreheads start to get a little sweaty.”

The impact of a short federal shutdown would be minimal, the association wrote in a recent briefing paper. A longer shutdown could pose problems. Even if many of the potential fiscal effects are relatively small, they could create cash-flow problems for some states already operating on tight budgets.

Illinois, for example, is currently trying to pay off a $4.5 billion backlog of bills to vendors going back to October. Bradley C. Hahn, a spokesman for the Illinois comptroller, Judy Baar Topinka, said, “A shutdown would be particularly devastating for states like ours that have no margins to cover the costs.”

Most of the largest federal programs that states rely on — for crucial safety net programs like Medicaid and food stamps, among other things — would most likely continue to function in the event of a shutdown.

But interruptions of smaller programs could still strain states in the short run, as they find themselves forced to pay the salaries of workers normally paid with federal funds.

The budget officers’ association noted that during the shutdown in 1995, Maryland spent $1.4 million a day to keep its federally paid employees at work.

While those kinds of expenses would probably be reimbursed, they are coming as many states are unusually vulnerable.

Some states have been preparing for a possible shutdown. Massachusetts estimates that it has roughly 4,500 full-time workers who are paid from various federal sources. State budget officials sent a memo to all department heads last month, urging them to identify any concerns “as they relate to their ability to make bi-weekly payroll for employees currently paid from federal sources.”

A shutdown could lead to the loss of tax revenues for a city like Washington, where an estimated 69,700 federal workers live and pay taxes. All told, more than 200,000 federal civilian employees work there, and support the local economy every time they go to lunch.

Washington is already considering tax increases and service cuts to close a $322 million deficit next year. A federal shutdown, by some calculations, could cost the city as much as $6 million a week in lost tax revenue.

But the impact of shutdowns is not always dire.

Virginia officials said the 1995 shutdown had little effect on state tax collections: many of Virginia’s federal and military workers were deemed essential, and its nonessential federal workers who were furloughed were reimbursed for their lost wages.

Mr. Pattison, of the budget officers association, said states seemed much more nervous this year than in the past. “They have so much on their plate,” he said. “Anything that might have an impact, no matter how small, they’re worried about.”

This story originally appeared in the The New York Times

From Public Radio:

Guide to a government shutdown

Posted at 11:42 AM on April 5, 2011 by Bob Collins (6 Comments)

The government is making plans for a government shutdown if negotiations on a federal budget for the last six months of the fiscal year don't lead to a settlement. President Obama met this morning at the White House with House Speaker John Boehner,R-Ohio, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and the chairmen of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees. No deal was reached.

What happens if the government shuts down? The Office of Management and Budget already has the plans, it's just not revealing what they are. But based on previous shutdowns, here are the likely answers to questions about it:

Q: Will I get my Social Security payment?

A: Yes. But there is some dispute over how many Social Security workers would stay on the job. Some say the Social Security Administration is not part of an appropriation, so its workers wouldn't be affected, but the Office of Management and Budget is commenting on this so we don't know what would happen, say, if you wanted to apply for disability payments via Social Security. But that's a process that can drag on for a year or more, anyway.

Q: What is the most obvious effect of the shutdown?

A: Plan on seeing TV news footage of families who've been saving up for a vacation in Washington, turned away from a locked Smithsonian or Washington Monument. Or any other government-run museum or attraction, including the national parks. In Minnesota, this would obviously include Voyageurs.

For people who operate restaurants and businesses in areas where there are lots of federal workers, the shutdown will likely cost them dearly.

It would be a bad time for one of those salmonella outbreaks or mysterious illnesses to occur. The Centers for Disease Control will stop tracking them during a shutdown. But Team Diarrhea would still be on the case. Heck, they do a lot of the work, anyway.

Q: Would the VA facilities close?

A: No. Medical employees who provide inpatient and emergency care are considered essential. But outpatient treatment would likely be curtailed.

Q: Would federal courts close?

A: Bad news, white-collar criminals. They stay open.

Q: Would it be safe to fly?

A: Air traffic controllers are considered essential so there would be no disruption in ATC activities. Metal fatigue in aging aircraft, however, don't know when the government is operating and when it isn't.

Q: If the Red River flooding requires federal aid and response, will residents get it?

A: Yes. Disaster response is not affected in a shutdown.

Q: Will I still have to pay taxes by April 18?

A: Yes, but you may have to wait longer to get a refund.

Q: If the government shuts down, who will bring me my daily supply of credit card offers?

A: No problem. The mail will still be delivered.

Q: What are some less obvious effects of the shutdown?

A: From the Boston Globe: "(In the 1995 shutdown) ...the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking the spread of diseases such as AIDS and the flu; toxic waste removal at 609 sites was suspended. Work on more than 3,500 bankruptcy cases ceased, and investigations into delinquent child support cases were put on hold."

Q: What if I need a visa or passport?

A: In 1995, 20,000-30,000 foreign visa applications per day went unprocessed, as did an estimated total of 200,000 U.S. passport applications, according to PBS.

Q: I work for the federal government. Will I have to go to work?

A: From Federal Computer Week: There are two types of shutdowns. In a "soft shutdown," federal employees would come to work but could not do anything "productive," that is, anything to carry out the central duties of the agency. They could clean up their desks.

A "hard shutdown" would mean employees are furloughed from work. Only those few exempt employee would come in.

The soft shutdown would only occur if the president believes there's a chance for a rapid compromise with Congress. Hard shutdowns would signal a bleaker picture.

Q: How many federal workers would be furloughed?

A: In the last shutdown -- 1995 -- about 800,000 government workers were furloughed. Back then, there were 2,920,000 federal employees, excluding the military. Now, there are 2,839,000 federal employees, excluding uniformed military.

Q: Will I be paid during the furlough?

A: In the last shutdown, workers were paid retroactively. So the government doesn't save on salaries during a shutdown. However, people who work under contract with the federal government would not likely be paid.

Q: What if I want to work unpaid?

A: You can't. Federal law prohibits the government from accepting volunteer work.

Q: Will soldiers be paid?

A: A Pentagon spokesman said today the Department of Defense has not yet decided. It's a safe bet, however, that even Washington understands the public relations nightmare that comes with not giving a soldier at war his check.

Q: How long will it last?

A: If history is any guide, a few days. The longest shutdown lasted less about three weeks.

Q: How much will the government save during the shutdown.

A: Nothing. Current estimates, which some consider low, suggest it could cost the government $100 million a day.